# S&P Global (SPGI) — InvestMoat Analysis _Last analyzed: July 28, 2026_ _Asset class: equity · Canonical page: https://investmoat.com/stocks/spgi_ ## Scores | Dimension | Score (0–100) | | --- | --- | | Moat durability | 97 | | Growth trajectory | 73 | | Valuation | 75 | | **Composite** | **82** | | **Recommendation** | **Strong Buy** | Scores are computed deterministically from this asset’s data by the InvestMoat formula (see https://investmoat.com/llms.txt for methodology). Scores are not directly comparable across asset classes. ## Key stats - **Ticker:** SPGI - **Market Cap:** $122B ## Moat A global duopoly with Moody's in debt ratings. Regulatory and brand moat. ### The Toll-Bridge Moat S&P Global operates a **Financial Toll Bridge**: - **Regulatory Oligopoly:** You cannot issue global debt without a rating from S&P or Moody's. It is a legally-embedded requirement for institutional investors. - **IP Moat:** The S&P 500 brand is the most licensed index in the world. Asset managers pay SPGI every time a new ETF is created. - **Low Capex:** Once the rating methodologies and data platforms are built, every additional dollar of revenue flows straight to the bottom line. **Moat verdict:** S&P Global's regulatory moat (NRSRO status) and role as the definitive system of record for credit risk makes them uniquely AI-resilient. AI disrupts analysis, not the legal requirement to use S&P ratings. ## Growth Q2 2026 (reported July 28, 2026) grew revenue 10% YoY to $4.15B — 11% organic constant-currency — with adjusted operating margin +200bps to 54.3% and adjusted diluted EPS +23% to $4.83. The growth is heavily concentrated in two segments: Indices +20% to $534M at a 71.5% margin (13th consecutive record quarter, ETF-linked AUM $6.35T, +34% YoY, over $600B of net inflows) and Ratings +13% to ~$1.3B at a 68.5% margin (+310bps) on transaction revenue +25%, driven by hyperscaler and infrastructure issuance plus M&A. The other half grew far slower: Market Intelligence +6% to $1,235M at a 36.0% margin, Commodity Insights +3% to $623M. Following the Mobility Global spin-off (distributed July 1, 2026), FY2026 guidance is struck on continuing operations only — adjusted diluted EPS of $17.50-17.75, +10-12% against the pro forma 2025 base published July 6, 2026 — and is explicitly not comparable to the prior whole-company range of $19.40-19.65. Buybacks are guided above $7B for 2026. - **Revenue CAGR estimate:** 8-12% - **Primary type:** both - **Margin trend:** expanding - **Key risk (moderate):** The two segments now carrying nearly all the growth are the two most cyclical: Ratings transaction revenue (+25% in Q2 2026) is levered directly to debt issuance volumes, and Indices asset-linked fees fall with equity market levels. The Mobility separation removed a block of non-cyclical subscription revenue, so a simultaneous issuance freeze and equity drawdown now hits RemainCo harder than it would have hit the pre-spin company. - **Drivers:** - Ratings — Q2 2026 Ratings revenue +13% YoY to ~$1.3B with transaction revenue +25%; adjusted operating margin 68.5% (+310bps) (stable) - Indices — Q2 2026 Indices revenue +20% YoY to $534M, 13th consecutive record quarter; ETF-linked AUM $6.35T (+34% YoY) (accelerating) - Operating Margin — Q2 2026 adjusted operating margin 54.3%, +200bps YoY (accelerating) - Market Intelligence & Commodity Insights — Q2 2026 Market Intelligence +6% YoY to $1,235M (36.0% margin); Commodity Insights +3% to $623M (decelerating) - **Score derivation:** Base 73 (8-12% CAGR midpoint) + net trajectory of four drivers (+1) + expanding margin (+4) + growth from both TAM and share (+4) - moderate issuance/AUM cyclicality risk (-5) = 77 ## Valuation All three scenario targets have been rebased to post-spin RemainCo. The Mobility Global distribution completed July 1, 2026, and FY2026 guidance is now struck on continuing operations at $17.50-17.75 adjusted diluted EPS — roughly 10% below the prior whole-company range purely because Mobility is gone. The previous targets ($385/$500/$610) were struck on the pre-spin company against $19.40-19.65 of EPS and are no longer meaningful. At ~$425 (July 28, 2026, after a ~5% drop on the Q2 print) the stock trades at ~24x the midpoint of post-spin guidance, roughly 20% above the rebased bear case and ~11% below base. Worth noting that the stub has risen since the July 1 distribution: it separated from a $424.42 cum-distribution close on June 26 with MBGL then estimated at $25-33/share, so RemainCo has already been re-rated upward on the cleaner mix, which is what removes most of the margin of safety here. The Q2 print supports that re-rating — Indices and Ratings, the two highest-margin segments, delivered nearly all the growth — but the price now requires it to continue. ## Price scenarios ### Bear — $355 Issuance rolls over and equity markets fall together, hitting the two segments that now carry the growth, and RemainCo de-rates to ~20x post-spin earnings. - Debt issuance normalises after the 2026 refinancing surge, unwinding the +25% Ratings transaction revenue growth reported in Q2 2026 - An equity drawdown cuts asset-linked Indices fees, which compound off the $6.35T ETF-linked AUM base rather than a contracted one - Market Intelligence stays at the +6% pace and Commodity Insights at +3%, leaving no ballast when the cyclical half turns ### Base — $475 RemainCo delivers the guided $17.50-17.75 and holds a multiple in line with Moody's as the post-spin mix shifts revenue toward the two highest-margin, most defensible segments. - FY2026 adjusted diluted EPS lands in the guided $17.50-17.75 range, +10-12% on the pro forma 2025 base - Indices sustains high-teens growth as ETF-linked AUM compounds off $6.35T and net inflows exceed $600B annually - Over $7B of 2026 buybacks compounds per-share earnings on a shrinking count ### Bull — $565 The mix shift is recognised in the multiple: a company where Ratings and Indices supply nearly all the growth at ~70% segment margins is priced as an index-and-benchmark franchise rather than a diversified data conglomerate. - Private credit ratings scale into a standing requirement as insurer and NAIC frameworks mature, extending Ratings growth past the refinancing wall - Market Intelligence re-accelerates out of the post-realignment trough, removing the drag on blended growth - The market re-rates RemainCo toward the index-franchise multiple, closing the gap to MSCI on a comparable mix --- InvestMoat is an open-source research and education framework. Nothing here is financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.