# Ferrari N.V. (RACE) — InvestMoat Analysis _Last analyzed: August 13, 2026_ _Asset class: equity · Canonical page: https://investmoat.com/stocks/race_ ## Scores | Dimension | Score (0–100) | | --- | --- | | Moat durability | 58 | | Growth trajectory | 65 | | Valuation | 74 | | **Composite** | **66** | | **Recommendation** | **Speculative Buy** | Scores are computed deterministically from this asset’s data by the InvestMoat formula (see https://investmoat.com/llms.txt for methodology). Scores are not directly comparable across asset classes. ## Key stats - **Ticker:** RACE - **Market Cap:** ~$73B ## Moat Ferrari's moat is artificial scarcity compounded by 75 years of brand heritage — it deliberately produces fewer cars than the market demands, creating permanent waiting lists that give it limitless pricing power and make its products investment assets rather than depreciating purchases. ### The Scarcity Engine Ferrari's competitive position is best understood as a **luxury brand masquerading as a car company** — its moat lies in brand scarcity, collector demand, and the F1 halo that competitors cannot buy: - **Deliberate Scarcity as Strategic Moat:** Ferrari caps production at levels well below demand — the Purosangue SUV is intentionally constrained to protect exclusivity, and the F80 hypercar (799 units at €3.6M each) sold out immediately. This scarcity is not a supply constraint but a strategic choice: Ferrari knows that the moment it can make all the cars buyers want, the brand becomes ordinary. This makes Ferrari structurally different from all other automakers and most luxury goods companies — demand perpetually exceeds supply, eliminating the need for discounting and creating sustained pricing power. - **Pricing Power That Defies Economics:** Ferrari raised prices every year from 2019 through 2025 while its order book grew longer. Revenue climbed from €3.5B in 2019 to €8.3B in FY2025 — not through volume growth, but through price mix and personalization revenue (Tailor Made customization). The Classiche authenticity program for classic Ferraris creates a secondary market premium that reinforces new-car pricing power. When Ferraris resell above purchase price, buyers have zero incentive to negotiate — a dynamic that makes Ferrari's customer relationships more like luxury investment funds than car purchases. - **F1 as an Irreplaceable Brand Moat:** Ferrari is the only Formula 1 team that has competed in every season since the championship's founding in 1950 — a 75-year marketing engine that reaches 500M+ fans globally and directly converts racing success to purchase intent. No competitor can buy this heritage. Ferrari's F1 involvement costs ~€600M per year but generates billions in brand value: each race is a global advertisement for exclusivity, performance, and Italian craftsmanship. The emotional connection between the racing team and road cars is a moat that cannot be acquired or replicated. **Moat verdict:** Ferrari's moat is built on physical scarcity, 75-year brand heritage, and collector psychology — dimensions that AI cannot replicate or erode, but also cannot enhance in the way it benefits data-driven businesses. The Ten Moats framework understates Ferrari's competitive position because its advantages (brand, scarcity, pricing power) are traditional luxury moats that predate the digital era and remain immune to AI disruption — AI is simply irrelevant to why a billionaire will wait two years and pay €500,000 for a Ferrari. ## Growth Q2 FY2026 revenue rose to €1.94B (+8% reported, +11% constant currency) with EBITDA of €755M (39.0% margin), EBIT of €605M (31.2% margin, +10% YoY), net profit of €463M and diluted EPS of €2.62. Industrial free cash flow rose 39% to €276M despite planned model change-overs and 3,366 shipments. Management raised FY2026 guidance to ~€7.60B revenue, adjusted EBITDA ≥€2.97B, adjusted EBIT ≥€2.26B, adjusted EPS ≥€9.68 and industrial FCF ≥€1.55B, citing stronger personalizations and lower-than-expected currency headwinds. The order book remains full through 2027, with personalization and richer sports-car mix carrying growth more than unit expansion. - **Revenue CAGR estimate:** 6-9% - **Primary type:** both - **Margin trend:** stable - **Key risk (moderate):** US tariffs, currency moves and planned model change-overs could cap reported growth even while order books remain full; cyclical luxury demand in China and the Middle East could slow waitlist conversion over 12-24 months. - **Drivers:** - Personalization & Mix — Q2 FY2026 revenue +11% cc despite planned model change-overs; stronger personalizations drove the guidance raise (accelerating) - Price/Mix Pricing Power — FY2026 guide raised to ~€7.60B revenue and adjusted EPS ≥€9.68; order book full through 2027 (stable) - Electrification Premium — First full-electric Ferrari still expected to be unveiled in 2026 as mix shifts through 12Cilindri, Purosangue and special-series launches (stable) - **Score derivation:** Base 68.8 (6-9% CAGR, midpoint 7.5%) + 1.3 trajectory (personalization accelerating; price/mix and EV launch stable) + 0 stable margins - 5 moderate tariff/FX risk = 65 ## Valuation At $407.21, Ferrari trades about 27% above the rebuilt bear case ($320) and roughly 11% below the new base case ($460). Q2 FY2026 confirmed the scarcity and personalization thesis, but the old $700 bull case treated a luxury-style re-rating as nearer-term fair value. The current setup is a quality-compounder entry rather than a deep-value dislocation. **Fair value:** $460 — Ferrari still deserves a luxury multiple because Q2 showed 39% EBITDA margins, a full 2027 order book and guidance raised on personalization. At the new $460 base case, the stock prices a low-40s earnings multiple on the raised 2026 EPS floor and assumes continued price/mix execution; the bull case requires the EV and special-series pipeline to expand the addressable buyer pool without diluting scarcity. ## Price scenarios ### Bear — $320 US tariffs, FX and model transition costs overwhelm personalization gains, pushing the market to value Ferrari closer to a premium automaker than a scarcity luxury house. - US tariffs and adverse currency keep reported growth below the constant-currency demand signal for multiple quarters - The first full-electric Ferrari requires more R&D and manufacturing capex than forecast, compressing industrial FCF during the transition phase - A slowdown in global wealth creation reduces waitlist conversion and pushes the multiple toward the high-20s on 2026-2027 earnings ### Base — $460 Ferrari compounds through price/mix, personalization and a full order book, with the raised 2026 guide converting into 12-24 month fair value rather than a cycle-peak multiple. - FY2026 revenue lands near the raised ~€7.60B guide with adjusted EBITDA margin at or above 39% - Personalization and richer sports-car mix sustain high-single-digit constant-currency growth despite modest shipments - The 2026 EV reveal preserves brand scarcity and supports, rather than dilutes, Ferrari's pricing umbrella ### Bull — $620 The EV launch and special-series pipeline deepen Ferrari's scarcity premium, while personalization and racing/brand revenue keep earnings compounding above the raised plan. - The first Ferrari EV sells out quickly at ultra-luxury price points and adds younger wealth without increasing discounting risk - Purosangue, 12Cilindri and special-series mix keep personalization growth well above base-vehicle revenue growth - Investors re-rate Ferrari toward a higher luxury multiple as 39%+ EBITDA margins and full order books persist through 2027 --- InvestMoat is an open-source research and education framework. Nothing here is financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.